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!原文!!参考译文（谷歌机翻）
!原文!!参考译文（谷歌机翻）
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|'''Vietnam's ‘Economic Miracle’'''<br/><br/>
|'''Inflation in the United States (US)'''<br/><br/>
Thirty years ago, Vietnam was one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia. Since then, its real GDP has increased rapidly. A series of economic and political reforms has been responsible for its so-called ‘economic miracle’.<br/>
Prices are rising much faster than expected across the world's economies, including the US. As the US economy has grown, the prices of goods and services have substantially increased. The US economy is forecast to grow by 7.4% in 2021, with consumer spending rising by over 10% per year, but this boom has been accompanied by a rapid increase in the inflation rate. <br/>
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Vietnam has benefitted from the increased protectionism in trade between China and the United States (US). For example, Vietnam has increased production of goods that are substitutes to those made in China to such an extent that Vietnam is popularly referred to as ‘China plus one’, in recognition of its similar comparative advantage to China.<br/>
The US inflation rate was 1.7% in February 2021. By the end of that year it had been expected to be 1.9%, but by June 2021 the rate was already 5.4% compared with 12 months before. This is the highest rate of inflation in the US since August 2008. <br/>
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Rising export revenue is only one reason for Vietnam’s spectacular economic growth. With a rapidly growing population, Vietnam has invested heavily in its human capital and physical capital in the form of infrastructure, including cheap access to the internet.<br/>
Rising inflation in the US has two main causes. The first cause is a substantial increase in the demand for consumer spending on goods and services. The economy has also been boosted by the US government’s economic stimulus package in response to the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 and 2021, the US government spent an additional US$6 trillion, leading to a budget deficit of 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in June 2021, one of the largest budget deficits in the world. <br/>
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A third reason for this success is how Vietnam has moved towards trade liberalisation. This is shown through its free trade agreement with the US and its membership of organisations of countries that have agreed to trade freely with each other, such as ASEAN and the TPP. These initiatives involve the removal of tariffs and other tools of protection, increasing the potential for Vietnam to trade with other countries.<br/>
The second cause of increasing inflation in the US is significant disruption to the supply of many goods as a result of the pandemic, a problem worsened by disruption to global shipping created by the temporary blocking of the Suez Canal. There are now long-term supply shortages for a wide range of products from semiconductors to timber. The cost of shipping goods has also become more expensive; for example, the cost of shipping goods from China to the US has tripled over 12 months. <br/>
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Nevertheless, there are possible dangers in this strategy. Vietnam’s economy is heavily dependent on its exports which in 2017 were over 90% of GDP. This reliance puts Vietnam at risk from downturns in the global economy and in the economies of its main trading partners. Even more worrying is the repeated threat from the US that it may put import tariffs on manufactured goods from Vietnam.
A sustained increase in inflation could have a number of consequences, both negative and positive. Rising inflation could lead to a tightening of monetary policy, such as through an increase in interest rates. This is important in the US given that the government is targeting an annual inflation rate of 2%. Some economists believe that interest rates in the US may need to rise from 0.25% to as high as 4.50% to ‘cool’ the economy and reduce the rate of inflation and that this is likely to happen sooner rather than later.
||'''越南的“经济奇迹”'''<br/>
||'''美国的通货膨胀'''<br/>
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　　三十年前，越南是东南亚最贫穷的国家之一。此后，其实际GDP迅速增长。一系列经济和政治改革为其所谓的“经济奇迹”负责。<br>
　　包括美国在内的全球经济体的价格上涨速度远超预期。随着美国经济的增长，商品和服务的价格大幅上涨。预计2021年美国经济将增长7.4%，消费者支出每年增长10%以上，但这种繁荣伴随着通货膨胀率的快速上升。<br>
<br/>
<br/>
　　越南受益于中美贸易保护主义的加剧。例如，越南增加了替代中国制造的商品的生产，以至于越南被普遍称为“中国加一”，以承认其与中国相似的比较优势。<br>
　　2021年2月，美国通货膨胀率为1.7%。到当年年底，预计为1.9%，但到2021年6月，与12个月前相比，该通胀率已经达到5.4%。这是美国自2008年8月以来的最高通货膨胀率。<br>
<br/>
<br/>
　　美国通胀上升有两个主要原因。第一个原因是消费者对商品和服务支出的需求大幅增加。美国政府为应对COVID-19大流行造成的经济低迷而推出的经济刺激计划也提振了经济。2020年和2021年，美国政府额外支出6万亿美元，导致2021年6月的预算赤字占国内生产总值(GDP)的12.7%，是世界上最大的预算赤字之一。<br>
<br/>
<br/>
　　出口收入的增加只是越南经济高速增长的原因之一。随着人口的快速增长，越南以基础设施的形式大力投资于人力资本和物质资本，包括廉价的互联网接入。<br>
　　美国通货膨胀加剧的第二个原因是大流行导致许多商品供应严重中断，苏伊士运河暂时封锁造成的全球航运中断使这一问题更加严重。现在，从半导体到木材，范围广泛的产品都存在长期供应短缺的问题。运输货物的成本也变得更加昂贵；例如，从中国运往美国的货物成本在12个月内增加了两倍。<br>
<br/>
<br/>
　　这一成功的第三个原因是越南如何走向贸易自由化。这体现在它与美国的自由贸易协定以及它在东盟和 TPP 等已同意相互自由贸易的国家组织中的成员身份。这些举措包括取消关税和其他保护工具，增加越南与其他国家贸易的潜力。<br/>
　　通货膨胀的持续增加可能会产生许多负面和正面的后果。通胀上升可能导致货币政策收紧，例如通过提高利率。这在美国很重要，因为政府的目标是年通胀率为2%。一些经济学家认为，美国的利率可能需要从0.25%上升到高达4.50%才能“冷却”经济并降低通货膨胀率，而且这可能会早不宜迟。
<br/>
　　然而，这种策略可能存在危险。越南经济严重依赖出口，2017 年出口占 GDP 的比重超过 90%。这种依赖使越南面临全球经济及其主要贸易伙伴经济下滑的风险。更令人担忧的是，美国一再威胁要对越南制成品征收进口关税。
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2023年6月10日 (六) 01:41的版本

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9708 m23 qp 22 1Passage.png


　　中英对照　　

原文 参考译文（谷歌机翻）
Inflation in the United States (US)

Prices are rising much faster than expected across the world's economies, including the US. As the US economy has grown, the prices of goods and services have substantially increased. The US economy is forecast to grow by 7.4% in 2021, with consumer spending rising by over 10% per year, but this boom has been accompanied by a rapid increase in the inflation rate.

The US inflation rate was 1.7% in February 2021. By the end of that year it had been expected to be 1.9%, but by June 2021 the rate was already 5.4% compared with 12 months before. This is the highest rate of inflation in the US since August 2008.

Rising inflation in the US has two main causes. The first cause is a substantial increase in the demand for consumer spending on goods and services. The economy has also been boosted by the US government’s economic stimulus package in response to the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 and 2021, the US government spent an additional US$6 trillion, leading to a budget deficit of 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in June 2021, one of the largest budget deficits in the world.

The second cause of increasing inflation in the US is significant disruption to the supply of many goods as a result of the pandemic, a problem worsened by disruption to global shipping created by the temporary blocking of the Suez Canal. There are now long-term supply shortages for a wide range of products from semiconductors to timber. The cost of shipping goods has also become more expensive; for example, the cost of shipping goods from China to the US has tripled over 12 months.

A sustained increase in inflation could have a number of consequences, both negative and positive. Rising inflation could lead to a tightening of monetary policy, such as through an increase in interest rates. This is important in the US given that the government is targeting an annual inflation rate of 2%. Some economists believe that interest rates in the US may need to rise from 0.25% to as high as 4.50% to ‘cool’ the economy and reduce the rate of inflation and that this is likely to happen sooner rather than later.

美国的通货膨胀


　　包括美国在内的全球经济体的价格上涨速度远超预期。随着美国经济的增长，商品和服务的价格大幅上涨。预计2021年美国经济将增长7.4%，消费者支出每年增长10%以上，但这种繁荣伴随着通货膨胀率的快速上升。

　　2021年2月，美国通货膨胀率为1.7%。到当年年底，预计为1.9%，但到2021年6月，与12个月前相比，该通胀率已经达到5.4%。这是美国自2008年8月以来的最高通货膨胀率。

　　美国通胀上升有两个主要原因。第一个原因是消费者对商品和服务支出的需求大幅增加。美国政府为应对COVID-19大流行造成的经济低迷而推出的经济刺激计划也提振了经济。2020年和2021年，美国政府额外支出6万亿美元，导致2021年6月的预算赤字占国内生产总值(GDP)的12.7%，是世界上最大的预算赤字之一。

　　美国通货膨胀加剧的第二个原因是大流行导致许多商品供应严重中断，苏伊士运河暂时封锁造成的全球航运中断使这一问题更加严重。现在，从半导体到木材，范围广泛的产品都存在长期供应短缺的问题。运输货物的成本也变得更加昂贵；例如，从中国运往美国的货物成本在12个月内增加了两倍。

　　通货膨胀的持续增加可能会产生许多负面和正面的后果。通胀上升可能导致货币政策收紧，例如通过提高利率。这在美国很重要，因为政府的目标是年通胀率为2%。一些经济学家认为，美国的利率可能需要从0.25%上升到高达4.50%才能“冷却”经济并降低通货膨胀率，而且这可能会早不宜迟。


题目1a 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1a.png
题目类型 　 图表分析
难度 　 　容易　
考察知识点 　 对表格信息的获取与描述
解答要点 　 ●　对两个阶段的通胀率变化情况进行描述，注意写明变化趋势（上升或下降）、变化速率（快或慢）和变化前后的数值。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1a-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (a) Using Fig. 1.1, compare the US inflation rate between July and December 2020 with that between January and June 2021. [2]


题目1b 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1b.png
题目类型 　 概念识别
难度 　 　中等　
考察知识点 　 expansionary fiscal policy的识别与举例
解答要点 　 ●　本题运用了类似比喻的手法，需要明确指出所谓的economic stimulus package是指政府的扩张性财政政策，并从文章中摘抄出政府具体的扩张性财政政策的例子（政府在2020-2021年额外增加6 trillion）。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1b-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (b) Using the information provided, explain what is meant by ‘the US government’s economic stimulus package’. [2]


题目1c 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1c.png
题目类型 　 政策评价
难度 　 　中等　
考察知识点 　 monetary policy如何纠正inflation
解答要点 　 ●　本题以consider the extent开头，注意需要有evaluation的部分。
●　先讨论interest rate能够降低inflation的逻辑链。利率上升会提高cost of borrowing，这会减少人们的借贷，从而降低consumption和investment，AD下降，demand-pull inflation下降，通胀率降低。
●　再讨论interest rate可能无法降低inflation的特殊情况，比如consumer confidence或business confidence很高，消费和投资不会下降、消费或投资是interest inelastic（不得不消费或投资）、inflation还有其他原因（如原材料涨价、运输成本上升等）。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1c-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (c) Consider the extent to which an increase in interest rates could reduce the rate of inflation in the US. [4]


题目1d 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1d.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 inflation的原因分析
解答要点 　 ●　本题以assess whether开头，注意需要有evaluation的部分。
●　先分析需求侧的原因，比如可能因为利率的下降、消费者信心提升等原因导致消费上升，AD增加，图像上AD右移，导致demand-pull inflation出现。
●　然后分析供给侧的原因，比如可能因为原材料价格上升、工资上升等原因，导致AS下降，图像上AS线左移，导致cost-push inflation出现。
●　注意画图分析。
●　最后讨论evaluation，比如讨论影响因素的主次、严重程度、弹性等。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1d-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (d) With the help of an AD/AS diagram, assess whether the rising inflation rate in the US has been caused by changes to the demand side or changes to the supply side of the economy. [6]


题目1e 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1e.png
题目类型 　 文字分析
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 inflation的影响分析
解答要点 　 ●　影响分为正面影响与负面影响，应分别给予讨论，并注意evaluation。
●　通胀的好处包括borrowers的债务减轻、企业的工资压力减轻、鼓励生产等，对这些好处进行逻辑链阐述。
●　通胀的坏处包括出口减少带来current account deficit、menu cost、shoe-leather cost、lenders利益受损等，对这些坏处进行逻辑链阐述。
●　进行evaluation，可以考虑和国外的通胀进行比较、出口产品的弹性、通胀率大小、是否被预测等因素。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 1e-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (e) Assess the possible consequences of a rising rate of inflation for a country such as the US. [6]


题目2a 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 2a.png
题目类型 　 文字分析
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 functions of price的理解；market economy与price mechanism
解答要点 　 ●　先解释functions of price的内容，包括signalling、rationing和incentivising三个功能，对每个功能进行解释。
●　然后分析市场经济中是如何体现这三者的，它们在市场经济中如何发挥作用。比如rationing可以提高分配效率减少浪费，signal能够给企业提供生产方向等。
●　最后进行evaluation，指出这些功能可能有问题的地方，比如signal有时可能被扭曲，如maximum price、inflation等。
●　结尾有一定总结。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 2a-MS.png
文字版备查 　 2 (a) Explain the functions of price in resource allocation and consider the importance of these functions in relation to the potential effectiveness of a market economy. [8]


题目2b 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 2b.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 market economy与mixed economy的比较
解答要点 　 ●　本题分为应该换成mixed economy（市场经济有问题、政府干预有好处）和不应该换成mixed economy（市场经济有好处、政府干预有问题）两个方向进行说明，并需要evaluation。
●　应该换成mixed economy的理由包括：各类market failure的说明（public good、merit good、demerit good等），政府干预能够纠正市场失灵等。
●　不应该换成mixed economy的理由包括：price mechanism的使用有效率、竞争带来创新、分配效率、政府失灵等。
●　evaluation可以考虑政府是否有充足资金干预、政府的话语权等。
●　最后要有总结段。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 2b-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (b) Assess whether all market economies should become mixed economies. [12]


题目3a 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 3a.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 收入inequality的原因；inequality对经济的影响
解答要点 　 ●　本题有两个问题，需要按照顺序分别回答。
●　先回答收入不平等的原因，比如人们是否工作、是否是兼职、工作技能、经验、工种等。
●　再回答收入不平等对经济的影响，包括对经济的好处和问题。好处包括提升效率、鼓励找工作等，问题包括穷人的生活质量下降、政府需要提供更多补助、增加犯罪率等。
●　最后给出判断，指出好处多还是坏处多，并写出结论段。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 3a-MS.png
文字版备查 　 3 (a) Explain the possible economic reasons for inequality of income and consider whether inequality of income can benefit an economy. [8]


题目3b 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 3b.png
题目类型 　 政策评价
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 minimum price的作用及影响
解答要点 　 ●　给出minimum price的定义，并画出图像。
●　说明minimum price的好处，比如能够减少demerit good的购买、提高进口产品价格以保护本国企业、提高生产者收入等。
●　再说明minimum price的问题，比如资源浪费、效率下降、black market的存在等。
●　最后进行evaluation，比较好处多还是坏处多，是否还有其他政策可以取代minimum price，并作出结论。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 3b-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (b) With the help of a diagram, assess whether the introduction of a minimum price in a market can be justified. [12]


题目4a 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 4a.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 circular flow of income模型；closed和open economy下该模型的变化
解答要点 　 ●　本题有两个问题，需要按照顺序分别回答。
●　先回答closed economy下的模型，画出图像，并指出此时的injection有I和G，leakage有S和T，均衡时I+G=S+T。
●　再回答open economy下的模型，画出图像，并指出此时的injection有I、G和X，leakage有S、T和M，均衡时I+G+X=S+T+M。
●　最后进行evaluation，说明一下二者的变化是否较大，可以从进出口量是否较大等方面进行说明。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 4a-MS.png
文字版备查 　 4 (a) Explain the circular flow of income in a closed economy and consider the extent to which the circular flow of income changes as an economy becomes an open economy. [8]


题目4b 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 4b.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 经济增长的影响
解答要点 　 ●　先解释经济增长的概念。
●　再说明经济增长的正面影响，比如提升就业、纠正current account deficit、提升人们收入和生活质量、增加税收收入并提供更多public good等。
●　然后说明经济增长的负面影响，比如带来demand-pull inflation、环境污染、不平等问题加剧、增加人们焦虑感等。
●　最后进行evaluation，讨论经济增长的好处多还是坏处多，比如是否注重capital goods、收益是否集中在少部分人手中、是否可持续等。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 4b-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (b) Assess whether the consequences of economic growth for an economy are always positive. [12]


题目5a 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 5a.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 汇率升值的概念及影响
解答要点 　 ●　先解释floating exchange rate和appreciation的概念。
●　再考虑升值的好处，比如进口价格降低、cost-push inflation下降、人们选择更多等。
●　然后考虑升值的问题，比如出口降低、current account deficit、经济下降、失业增加等。
●　最后考虑升值的好处多还是问题多，比如考虑到进出口商品的弹性等。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 5a-MS.png
文字版备查 　 5 (a) With the help of a diagram, explain what is meant by an appreciation of a floating exchange rate and consider whether a country can only benefit from the appreciation of its currency. [8]


题目5b 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 5b.png
题目类型 　 观点讨论
难度 　 　困难　
考察知识点 　 供给侧政策对current account deficit的纠正
解答要点 　 ●　先解释supply-side policies的概念并画图。
●　再讨论supply-side policies能够纠正current account deficit的方式，需要指出具体的供给侧政策并分析逻辑链，比如提升技术以提高出口竞争力，出口增加，贸易逆差下降等。至少给出2个不同方面的供给侧政策。
●　然后讨论supply-side policies的问题，比如仅在长期内才有效果、政府支出较高等。
●　最后考虑evaluation，可以选择其他类型的政策（fiscal或monetary政策）并分析其是否也能有效纠正贸易逆差，并和供给侧比较，看谁更适合实施。也可以讨论逆差的更多方面的原因，表明所讨论的供给侧政策不能全方位覆盖到所有方面。
●　结尾注意总结。
官方答案 　 　9708 m23 qp 22 5b-MS.png
文字版备查 　 (b) Assess whether supply-side policies are the most effective way to correct a deficit on the current account of the balance of payments of an economy. [12]


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